Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-25472719-20140927230506

The way the Deus Daily Bonus is laid out, one is led to believe that all prizes are equally likely. If the shuffle were truly random, one would expect to receive each of the prizes with equal likelihood (one in eight.) In reality, you have a 46% chance of getting 5000 gold (the worst prize possible,) a 30% chance of getting 1000 food (the second worst prize.) The probability of 40,000 or 50,000 gold are 8% and 12%, respectively. These statistics are based on 50 consecutive trials. For those who are statistically inclined, the standard error of the estimates is 4%. More valuable prizes occur with probabilities indistinguishable from zero, based on the standard error. 